Arsenal last reached the quarter-finals of the Champions League in 2009. Since then, Real Madrid have won the tournament 6 times. Of course, this statistic will not mean much when the two teams meet at the Emirates. But it certainly still shows the scale of the task Arsenal face.
In the last 8 first leg matches in the Champions League knockout rounds, Real Madrid have not lost, including 5 wins. Despite the remarkable achievements, Arsenal have shown a very strong defensive spirit in the Champions League this season. They have the fewest expected goals conceded per game (0.88 xG) in the league, while only Inter Milan have conceded fewer goals on average.
The Gunners got that thanks to goalkeeper David Raya conceding 3.7 goals less than he expected to have conceded. The Spaniard's excellent form has helped Arsenal lead by only 65 minutes in the Champions League this season.
However, Kylian Mbappe will still be a threat to the English team's defense. The Real Madrid striker has scored 10 goals in 16 matches against English sides in the Champions League, four of which have come in two games against Manchester City this season.
Real Madrid have beaten 111 different teams in the European Cup/Champions League, but Arsenal are yet to be one of them. To maintain serious hopes for the first Champions League semi-final in 16 years, the "Gunners" will need to keep that achievement before traveling to Spain.
Head-to-head record
With the history of both teams participating in the Champions League, it is surprising that they have only met twice in the previous tournament.
In 2006, Arsenal reached the Champions League final for the first time (and so far the only time). They beat Real Madrid in the round of 16, with a goalless draw at home after a 1-0 win in Spain.
However, Los Blancos have a lot of experience when facing Premier League teams. Since the 2017-2019 season, Real Madrid have played 22 matches against English sides in the Champions League qualifying round, winning 11 and losing just six. In just the last 3 seasons, they have won against Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City.
According to Opta, Arsenal are rated with a 41.7% chance of traveling to Spain in the second leg with the advantage of a lead. Real Madrid's hope of a victory is rated at 31.1%, with the remaining 27.2% reserved for a draw.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-1 Real Madrid
The match between Arsenal and Real Madrid takes place at 2:00 am on April 9 (Vietnam time).
