As of before round 38, Liverpool is ranked 5th with 59 points and a goal difference of +10. Bournemouth is immediately behind with 56 points and a goal difference of +4. In theory, the race for Champions League tickets is still undecided for this pair and at a very small probability, they may have to play-off to win the right to play in this arena next season.
In the final match, as long as Liverpool gets points against Brentford, they are guaranteed a Champions League spot because they will finish safely in 5th place, despite the outcome of the Nottingham vs Bournemouth match. If Liverpool loses and Bournemouth wins away against Nottingham, both teams will be equal with 59 points. Then, goal difference will be taken into account.
Liverpool is 6 points ahead of Bournemouth in goal difference. If the two teams are equal on points and goal difference, the number of goals will be considered. Currently, after round 37, Liverpool has scored 62 goals, 5 goals more than Bournemouth (57). Therefore, if Liverpool loses by a 1-goal difference, Bournemouth needs to win by a 5-goal difference. This is very unlikely to happen.
If the two teams have the same points, the same goal difference, the same number of goals scored, head-to-head record will be considered. This season, Liverpool beat Bournemouth 4-2 at home and lost 2-3 away. Therefore, the head-to-head record of the two teams is balanced. At this time, the factor of the number of goals scored away will be considered. However, both teams scored 2 goals away, so this sub-index is still balanced.
Although the odds are very low, Liverpool and Bournemouth having to play "round 39" is still likely to happen. If so, this will be a historic Premier League season when there will be a play-off match to determine the position.
The scenario for this race has not stopped when Aston Villa just won the Europa League title, which means going straight to the Champions League next season as a group 1 seed, and playing in the qualifying round. Unai Emery's team is currently ranked 4th with 62 points and a goal difference of +6. If Villa finishes the season in 5th place, the team ranked 6th in the Premier League this season will play in the Champions League according to UEFA's EPS (European Performance Slot) principle.
In the final round, Aston Villa will clash with Man City. If the championship race between Arsenal and Man City is still undecided at this time, Villa will...lose more easily after achieving their goal. Now, when they have just celebrated the Europa League championship, it is very difficult to...lose to a team that also has no goals like Man City.
If Villa loses to City and drops to 5th place, Bournemouth will play in the Champions League if they only need to get 1 point against Nottingham to secure 6th place. It is best for Andoni Iraola's team not to lose because if Brighton wins against Man United in the final round at home, in the context that the "Red Devils" have run out of targets, Brighton will be the team to take 6th place when they are 3 points behind Bournemouth but the goal difference is much better.
The above scenarios are very unlikely to happen individually, not to mention that they may happen at the same time. However, at least those things also make the Champions League ticket race in the final round still worth waiting for, alongside the relegation race between West Ham and Tottenham.
