Domestic coffee prices
This morning, the domestic coffee market fell sharply in all key regions.
In Dak Lak, coffee prices are trading at 131,000 VND/kg, down 2,500 VND compared to yesterday.
In Gia Lai, the price also decreased by VND2,500, down to VND131,000/kg.
In Dak Nong, coffee prices are currently recorded at VND 131,200/kg, down VND 2,400.
In Lam Dong alone, the market recorded a price of 130,200 VND/kg, down 2,300 VND.
World coffee prices
On the London Stock Exchange, Robusta futures for May fell by 6 USD, to 5,371 USD/ton. July term also decreased by 12 USD, down to 5,388 USD/ton. Longer terms fell deeper, fluctuating around $5,231/ton.
On the New York Stock Exchange, Arabica futures for May fell sharply by 3.6 cents to 385.25 cents/lb. July term fell 3.65 cents, trading at 381.75 cents/lb. Long terms such as December fell to 3.9 cents, to 369.95 cents/lb.
Reasons for sharp decline in coffee prices
The decline in coffee prices today is affected by many factors:
Favorable weather in Brazil: Key coffee growing areas such as Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo recorded better-than-expected rainfall. Favorable weather has improved expectations for new crops, especially as Brazil is about to enter the Robusta/Conilon harvest in April.
After a series of previous hot increases, profit-taking efforts from hedge funds and investors pushed coffee prices down sharply. This mentality is even more evident when the market is concerned that improved supply will curb price increases.
Marex Solutions forecasts that Vietnam's Robusta output in the 2025/26 crop will increase by 7.9% compared to the previous crop, to 28.8 million bags. Brazil is also expected to achieve a robusta output of 25 million bags, up 13.6%, adding more pressure on global coffee prices.
In the short term, coffee prices may also be under downward pressure if positive weather forecasts in Brazil continue to be consolidated. However, Vietnam's export expectations are still bright as the export value in the first quarter of 2025 has reached 2.8 billion USD, and the whole year target can reach 8 billion USD if prices remain around 5,500 - 6,000 USD/ton.
